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The bottom the number of deals on Moscow's secondary housing market was passed last summer, the bottom for the price — still to come, so I think, unfortunately, many real estate experts.

At the end of last year, we talked about the fact that the secondary housing market as a whole has adapted to new economic realities: the participants came out of the shadows, parting with illusions, and took the harsh truth of life in the face of declining revenues and the natural in such a situation, the desire for savings. This adaptation (even with falling of solvency), according to our estimates, would be enough to support the demand in 2016 of at least 15% higher than in the unpredictable 2015. the Results of the first half confirmed these predictions.

But the increase in trade will not lead to higher prices. Moreover, the changing conjuncture of the Moscow real estate market facing the consumer of a new "system of values": the value of secondary market may fall below the price for new buildings is a common practice in the world, but the real revolution.

Does the market following the collapse of last year?

According rosreestra, for six months in 2016 in Moscow it was 62 736 transitions of the rights of ownership — 10.8% more than in the same period last year (56 611 transitions right). In the first half of 2014 the figure was equal to 83 275 transactions. Accordingly, in 2015, it decreased by 32% (26 664 transactions). For the first six months of this year, having played 23% this fall (6125 transactions) that are still far from market recovery to pre-crisis levels.

You have to understand that the data of Rosreestr is information on actual completed transactions, reflecting a minimum current demand of the last month, when financial obligations on purchase and sale of already issued and the orders have not yet passed. However, statistics "Inkom-real Estate", taking into account the number of contracts on the Deposit (the actual demand) from January to June, confirms the General trend. According to our calculations, the number of financial obligations on the conduct of transactions in the first half of 2016 27% less than in the same period of 2014, but 16.6% more than in January — June of 2015. If we compare the number of agreements on the Deposit for the flat was decorated in the first half of 2014, 2015 and 2016, we get in the current first half played 28.2% of the decline in buying activity in the first, the most difficult six months of last year.

The increased demand, however, does not stimulate prices. You could say "contrary to expectations", but the truth is that on the secondary market even today there are no expectations of sharp changes in the pricing environment — and this is its fundamental difference from the situation last year, when the divergent views of buyers and sellers about property values dramatically slowed down the turnover. Today the atmosphere in General is this: a significant portion of owners are not waiting for higher prices, and buyers want to haggle a bit, within 10%. These are the conditions that enable the parties to find a compromise and to conduct transactions.

Confirm told by the statistics: in the first half of 2016, the average cost of supply on the secondary housing market of Old Moscow amounted to 183,8 thousand RUB for 1 sq. m. Negative correction from the beginning of year to 1.6%. Compared with June 2015 — minus 6.4%. Add to this discount (average size by the end of June and 8.5%), which is on the market today should be considered the rule, not the exception (83% of sales last month took place after bargaining for a fall). Total sales price has decreased year by an average of 15%.

The smallest negative price dynamics since June of last year, the expected recorded in the CENTRAL and Western districts, as cheaper housing in the area, and the North-East.

Dynamics of offer prices of flats in the secondary market of Moscow

District Average price

rubles per sq. m

Jun-2016

Average price

rubles per sq. m

the Jun-2015

Dynamics
CAO 381 306 388 886 2%
ZAO 209 134 220 750 5,3 %
SZAO 183 848 194 842 5,6 %
YuZAO 185 895 196 933 5,6 %
YuAO 163 940 174 800 6,2 %
SAO 182 483 195 262 6,5 %
VAO 158 296 169 243 6,5 %
YuVAO 155 821 166 736 6,5 %
SVAO 172 145 185 588 7,2 %
ZelAO 109 896 127 407 13,7 %

Analyzing the dynamics of prices in the districts of Old Moscow, to recap: minimum negative correction — back in the middle. In the first three on this indicator — Tver (-0,1%), Khoroshevskoe (-1,7%), Basman (of-2.1%). Maximum peripheral areas of the capital. In the first three — Vnukovo (-16,4%), Northern Butovo (-14,6%), Marfino (-13,9%).

When the total negative correction in prices, the corresponding figures increased in eight districts of the capital: Moscow (+8,7%), Arbat (+5,9%), Zamoskvorechye (+5,7%), Khamovniki (+3,6%), Prospekt Vernadskogo (+2,7%), Dorogomilovo (+1,3%), Tverskaya (+0.8 per cent), burgher (+0,7%).

The demand of today and the technologies of crisis sales.

When analyzing the number of calls to the company on sale of housing since 2005 (calls, consultations on the offered for sale objects, the so — called potential demand) draws attention to a curious fact. Indicators of the second half of last year and the first half of this is a reflection of the crisis of the market and a sign of a lack of demand comparable, and in some cases even higher than the corresponding values of 2007. It would seem, how so? After all, the year 2007 in the mass consciousness is not "about the crisis", but about investors, rising prices and other signs of the fat years in real estate.

Here it is necessary to recall what has happened in the housing market a little earlier — in the years 2005-2006: a huge demand, the uncontrolled growth of prices (in the two years they have grown in 2,5 times), the extremely limited amount for sale objects. Almost the whole of 2006 the proposal was at the low in January reached a low point. To buy an apartment at the time was incredibly difficult. You had entered into with the seller of the agreement on the advance, but always was the man who was killed for the price of your arrangements and made the second payment. This time a double, a triple (who more?) advances. Alternative transaction crumbled like a house of cards is to work in such conditions was almost impossible.

The usual practice of an alternative transaction: the owner takes a Deposit for my apartment, and then enters the market as a buyer. Approximately in a month is an alternative, and there deal. But in 2006, housing prices have grown by 5-10% per month, and the buyer couldn't keep up with them: the price of the object was recorded, and he was faced with the need to pay more and more for this or that elusive option. Then we fundamentally changed the technology of such transaction. People came to us, entered into an agreement to alternative, and we are against the established practice, did not put his apartment on sale, and "cleaned the table". Why would we sell it now? She goes instantly through a month at a higher price. We were in a buyer's market, looking for the client a suitable alternative living space, secured the agreement on the Deposit and only at the final stage implemented original housing. By the time it rose in price — the client was satisfied, moreover, if necessary, had the opportunity to increase the amount of the proposed advance.

It was a risk: in fact, making a forward advance, the company risked their money, but this is a reasonable technology for a crazy market as of 2006. To work differently in terms of when to choose literally nothing was impossible. The market has not just reached a boil, it bubbled up and spilled, and in 2007 came the inevitable correction. The collapse did not happen (the welfare of the population grew, the circumstances warranting the change of living conditions, have not gone away), but the market has paused to "take a breath" from the second half of 2006 gradually began to fall demand indicators, February 2007 — reduced prices. The correction period was short: the negative dynamics of the prices recorded from February to June, it amounted to 4.6% in dollars (remember that the Moscow secondary market at that time was marketed and traded in this currency). Since July, the number of appeals on questions of purchase and sale has steadily increased, supply decreased, prices increased macroeconomic environment of the time (sharp rise in oil prices, the influx of petrodollars, the increase in effective demand) again brought the housing market to the boiling point, and this time it ended with the "Bang" of the 2008 crisis.

To remember the history made for two reasons: first, the striking similarity between the indicators of consumer activity in the seemingly fundamentally different market conditions; second, the nuances of carrying out of alternative transactions in unusual market conditions. The current situation is the reverse — buying the hype and race of the 2006 prices. However, an alternative transaction under attack again: housing prices decrease slowly, and more and more cases, when the expiration of the prepayment (in average month) buyers back out of the deal due to the fact that you have found a cheaper apartment, this time on the market was another discount. And today, this fact can not be considered when determining the value of the object and its positioning.

The market today is the market of changes

If you evaluate the Moscow secondary housing market from the demand point of view, the position of our company is the bottom of the crisis passed last year: in the spring — the number of applications for sale of housing, in the summer the number of transactions.

Since we're talking about a gradual recovery in consumer activity. According to our estimates, in the nearest future the Moscow secondary housing market of mass segments will live ahead of last year's schedule of demand by approximately 15-20%. The number of transactions will gradually grow and the price to slowly aspire to... Scared to say "down" — this word means a fall. But falling prices will not, rather — marking, slow slide is 5-7% per year. The market growth is not possible without addressing the fundamental negative factors that currently still limit the demand globally. The economic situation in the country remains alarming, is the decline in real incomes — all this is appropriately reflected in consumer purchasing power and General trade.

The price on the secondary market today is under tremendous pressure — and macroeconomics, and on the other side, where until recently, were not expecting any surprises. The buildings, which we used to consider "statistical error" in the Moscow market of housing has become a serious competitor, the asset is a huge selection of relatively accessible facilities and attractive terms on the mortgage. It is true that in recent years, building not only "fun", but "better": there are a lot of really attractive offers. Time concrete boxes without doors and walls has passed, the market (ie, the buyer) requires a completely different level, and developers are forced to reciprocate.

The question is, will it be possible to end this never-seen-before many of the claimed objects. This is not about that. And the fact that the buildings are starting to win the "secondary" (where a significant proportion of the package is outdated housing stock with reduced consumer characteristics), the quality — it was impossible to imagine ten years ago, when developers didn't bother with construction of interior partitions. In response, the secondary housing market remains competing price. In 2016, a trend has emerged which is still the modern housing market has not been faced: the value of the objects on the "secondary market" as close to the price of apartments in new buildings, and in some cases it fell below the. Most often we are talking about obsolete housing stock. But not only that. In many cases, was reduced to a minimum the difference in price of objects with similar consumer characteristics, and sometimes even "secondary" is more preferred value. Thus, in contrast to the new buildings, it is not restricted by the profitability and the cost of the product and depending on the economic situation and market environment has the potential to continue bargaining. Moscow housing market today is fundamentally changing before our eyes and really wonder how will end this "era of change".

Contacts:

Office:   Moscow, Volgogradskiy prospect, Business center «TheCube», room 416
Legal services:  +7 (499) 391-57-55 ; +7 (916) 546-99-25 (hours)
Real estate services:   +7(499) 391-55-56
For customers speaking any of these languages -
English, Tamil, Malayalam, Telugu, Kannada, Hindi:
+7 (977) 288 59-95
Еmail: 89165469925@mail.ru; interlex17@rambler.ru

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